A team from Compass Lexecon’s East Coast Competition practice, led by Robert Oandasan, worked with a research team led by Anup Malani and Satej Soman from the University of Chicago and Darius Lakdawalla and Alice Chen from Quantitative Health Group to assist in creating evidence-driven COVID-19 vaccination priority plans for developing countries.
Using health survey data, census data, and COVID-19 testing data from Indonesia and India, the team from Compass Lexecon employed econometric models to estimate COVID-19 infection probabilities and infection fatality probabilities given location, age, demographics, and comorbidities. Using these probabilities, the team estimated the total number of lives saved with 1 million doses of vaccine by age and location. The research team, in cooperation with the Asian Development Bank, will ultimately use these estimates to advise the governments of India and Indonesia, as well as other low- and middle-income countries, on how many doses of vaccine they need and how they will distribute these doses to maximize their benefit.
Mr. Oandasan was assisted by a team at Compass Lexecon that included Zachary Campbell and Endi Mato.