The impact of the growth in shopping on Amazon on inflation in France between 2010 and 2025

In this paper commissioned by Amazon, Antoine Victoria, Valerio Serse, and Pamela Ferroni examine the impact of growth in shopping activity on Amazon on inflation in France. Using transaction data provided by Amazon and publicly available data, they estimate an econometric model for the 2010–2025 period. The analysis uses the overall Consumer Price Index, which includes both online and offline prices.

The results suggest that faster growth in transactions on Amazon is associated with lower inflation, consistent with an anti-inflationary effect. The authors also estimate the savings that this relationship can represent for French households. An additional model focusing on 2020–2025 points to a stronger estimated anti-inflationary effect in the recent period, approximately three times as large as that estimated using the full 2010–2025 period.

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