Compass Lexecon advises Energie Nederland on Resource Adequacy and the future design of the Dutch electricity market
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Compass Lexecon has supported Energie Nederland, the Dutch association of energy industrials, regarding the future design of the Dutch electricity market. The study modelled the resource adequacy outlook and assessed the economic impact of different market design options, and was presented on 9 September 2025 to the Dutch Minister of Climate Policy and Green Growth.
Situation
Different studies, including the most recent study from Dutch Transmission System Operator, TenneT (‘Monitor Leveringszekerheid’ from May 2025), have shown that the resource adequacy of the Dutch power system is likely to be challenged in the years to come, in particular after 2030. Energie Nederland, the Dutch association of energy industrials, reached out to Compass Lexecon to model the evolution of the electricity market and assess different potential solutions.
Our Role
A team from Compass Lexecon analysed different possible evolutions of the Dutch electricity market to inform the ongoing policy discussion. The objective of the report is two-fold:
- Provide policymakers with an in-depth assessment of the Dutch adequacy situation; and
- Evaluate different potential solutions.
Our market modelling builds on and expands TenneT’ study of future adequacy of the Dutch power system, by running a number of sensitivity tests to different assumptions representing a set of risks and uncertainties affecting the market. Our results confirm the likely adequacy issues related to the potential retirement of the existing gas plants and growing demand.
In addition, we have also analysed the merits of different potential solutions, such as a Strategic Reserve (‘SR’) and a market-wide Capacity Market (‘CM’). Our modelling shows that either would enhance economic welfare over the status quo in the Netherlands, but with potentially higher benefits for a Capacity Market. In addition, a Capacity Market has several advantages over a Strategic Reserve in the specific Dutch context, notably enabling new investments in a technology neutral way and providing a structural long-term solution.
Outcome
The final Compass Lexecon report, with in-depth analyses on the Dutch adequacy situation and assessments of potential solutions, was presented on 9 September 2025 to the Dutch Minister of Climate Policy and Green Growth.
The Team
The team working on the assessment was led by Fabien Roques, Dmitri Perekhodtsev, Wenkai Mi, with support from Tim Schittekatte from FTI. They worked closely with Wouter Verduyn and Rik van der Vossen of Energie Nederland.